Prediction Model For Humanitarian Logistics With Local Characteristics For Volcano Disaster
Joniarto Parung, Amelia Santoso, Dina Natalia Prayogo, Gladys Filani and Novianti

Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Surabaya

Abstract

The volcanic eruption disaster always gives an impact on the community around the disaster location. Rapid responses, as well as prompt and responsive assistance, are needed to reduce the impact and number of victims. During the emergency response period in some cases of our research, there is often a shortage of relief items delivered in some locations, although relief items are available in other locations. This is partly because impact prediction and contingency plans have not been optimal and have not considered the local characteristics that could affect the impact of the eruption. Therefore, a model for humanitarian logistics with local characteristics is needed to predict the impacts and needs of the victims of the volcanic eruption. The model took into account the specific factors in each volcano combined with the flow of goods and the flow of information from all parties involved. This model predicted the radius of impact of eruption based on factors that exist in every mount. This study explored an interrelated prediction model between the impact, the number of victims, and at the last, total number of relief items. The prediction model considered wind direction, seasons when the eruption occurs, shape and steepness of the mountain, the presence and position of the river, population density, and so forth so that the affected area is varied accordingly to the conditions of the eruption. A prediction model testing was conducted with case studies on 2 different volcanoes in East Java Province

Keywords: humanitarian logistics, emergency response, local characteristics

Topic: Emergency preparedness